NHL playoff bets: Hurricanes vs. Islanders Game 4 odds, preview, prediction 4/27

Hurricanes vs. Islanders Odds

Saturday, April 27, 2 p.m. ET, TBS

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NHL odds here.

Carolina Hurricanes

Over the first three games of this series, the Hurricanes have shown why they’re considered Stanley Cup contenders. Whether it be their high-end forwards, relentless forecheck or timely saves from Frederik Andersen, they can win in a multitude of ways. That’s been the story thus far.

Game 1 was a tightly contested battle in which a strong start to the third period propelled Carolina to victory. Game 2 was the Hurricanes’ best, despite falling behind 3-0, as they ultimately staged a massive, five-unanswered-goal comeback. And in Game 3 they were largely outplayed, but an early lead and some key saves from Andersen down the stretch proved to be enough.

In hindsight, the opening game of this series proved indicative of what was to come in the sense that the Islanders’ best effort wasn’t enough to steal a game. Carolina has been imperfect throughout this series, but its talent and pedigree continue to prevail. Against an Islanders team with some flaws, the Hurricanes haven’t needed a complete 60 minutes.

Still, the series-long underlying numbers heavily favor Carolina. The Hurricanes have played to a 56.51 xGF% and a 58.00 HDCF% at 5-on-5. They’ve won the 5-on-5 xGF% and HDCF% battles in two of three individual games. Ultimately, their top players have come through, as Jake Guentzel, Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov, Martin Necas and Seth Jarvis each have at least three points in the series.

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New York Islanders

Patrick Roy tried to spark his squad by turning to goaltender Ilya Sorokin in Game 3, but the decision backfired. The netminder was pulled in the second period after allowing three goals on 14 shots. The Islanders will turn back to Varlamov on Sunday, who has saved 2.92 goals above expected this series.

Goaltending aside, key skaters have similarly faltered for New York. The line of Casey Cizikas, Bo Horvat and Matt Barzal owns a 35.44 5-on-5 xGF% in more than 33 minutes of ice time. All three forwards have just one point in the series. Brock Nelson, the Islanders’ leading regular-season goal scorer, finally managed to get on the board in Game 3, and Noah Dobson, their second-leading point scorer, is still without a point. 

The analytics suggest New York was the better team in Game 3. The Islanders posted a 64.68 xGF% at 5-on-5 and held a 10-5 advantage in high-danger chances. They just couldn’t solve Andersen when they needed to most, which has been the issue throughout the series, especially when they similarly chased a one-goal deficit for much of the third period in Game 1.

At this point, it’s hard not to think Thursday’s loss was the nail in the coffin for New York. Despite another strong performance, they couldn't get into the win column. This veteran-heavy group appears steadfast about avoiding a sweep, though.

Hurricanes vs. Islanders

Betting Pick & Prediction

In a game where the Islanders will bring everything they've got and the Hurricanes own a comfortable lead, I'm expecting a more wide-open affair. Game 2 featured eight total goals and Game 3 saw five, so I'm anticipating something within that range in Game 4.

While Andersen and Varlamov have played well, neither is unbeatable and both are prone to the occasional soft goal. Thus, I'll take the over at even money.

Pick: Over 5.5 (+100 | Play to -105)